Cipla - 15th March

Today's Opening - 534
Today's High - 535
Today's Low - 529
Today's Closing - 533

Technical Indicators:
Flattish closing for three days in a row, with slightly higher volumes today.
The 10-day Rate Of Change had risen from being -17 on 9th Nov to positive since 31st Jan, yet it has again turned negative since 8th March.
The 2-day Relative Strength Index had remained above 30 since 29th Nov and had touched a peak of 68 on 28th Feb, but its gone below 50 over the past four days.
After closing below the 5-day Exponential Moving Average for most part of the past six months, the stock managed to rise during 29th Jan-4th March but again fell below the 5-day EMA since 5th March.
The 20-day Commodity Channel Index was positive during 31st Jan-6th March but has slipped into negative territory since then.
After remaining higher than the Negative Directional Index during 6th Feb-6th March, the 14-day Positive Directional Index has again dipped lower than the Negative Directional Index since 7th March.
The 12, 26-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence has remained positive since 7th Feb. This is the only positive indicator for this stock.

Corporate Activity:
Cipla is India's fourth largest drugmaker. In Q3 FY19, Cipla's revenue grew by 3% YoY while the net profit dropped by 17% YoY during the quarter.
To revive net profits, Cipla has exited certain low margin products from its portfolio. By exiting such products, capacity gets unlocked and they will be able to service their customers better, and avoid penalties for being unable to meet supply commitments.
Cipla SAGA or South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Cipla Global Access, that is largely tender driven declined by around 48% in Q3 FY19. SAGA business that constituted about 22% in FY18, declined to 19% in the nine months ended Dec of FY19.
Though on the right path, the delicate balance maintained between growing topline and sustaining (if not growing) bottomline remains the key.

Outlook for the Stock:
In my post on 24th Dec, I had mentioned that Cipla has a strong support at 503. In case 503 gets taken, the stock might correct upto 480. I had also mentioned that on the higher side, the stock could face a resistance at 535. The stock did break the resistance of 535 on 11th Feb but could not sustain and has come down to 528.
After dropping almost 20% over the past six months, the stock is trying to build a base at 528 levels and in case broken, again 503 and 480 are the next support levels. 535 and 558 are the next resistance levels. Keep buying on dips from a long-term perspective.

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