Vedanta - 15th Feb

Today's Opening - 151
Today's High - 151
Today's Low - 146
Today's Closing - 147

Technical Indicators:
Today's was yet another negative closing, with low volumes today.
The stock price has remained below the 5-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) broadly since 22nd Jan.
The 12, 26-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence has been negative since 9th Oct 2018. The 14-day Negative Directional Index has been stronger than the Positive Directional Index since 21st Sep last year, when the stock started the current leg of slide from 230 levels.
The 20-day Commodity Channel Index too has been negative since 22nd Jan. The 2-day Relative Strength Index had remained below 30 since 1st Feb.

Corporate Activity:
Volcan Investments is the investment vehicle of the promoter group, Anil Agarwal & family.Volcan owns a majority stake in Vedanta Resources, the holding company of Vedanta. Vedanta Resources was the investment vehicle of the group, and was listed in London till Oct 2018. At the time of he delisting announcement, Volcan owned a 66.5% stake in Vedanta Resources. In effect, Volcan owns nearly all of Vedanta Resources, which in turn owns a 50.1% stake in Vedanta.

In 2017, Volcan had through a structured transaction acquired a 19.6% stake in Anglo American for 3.5 bn Pounds for which it issued mandatory exchangeable bonds. Volcan has the option to repay the loan and get ownership of the shares or the bonds can be exchanged into Anglo American shares. At present, Volcan owns a 21% stake in Anglo American, and it has transferred a 1.8% stake to Cairn in return for the investment made.

Vedanta's 100% subsidiary Cairn India Holdings has invested $200 Mn to acquire an economic interest in Anglo American. All this sounds confusing, isn't it? That's exactly the reason why investors are punishing the stock as they are sensing some foul play by the promoters.

Stock Outlook:
In my post on 24th Dec '18, I had mentioned that if the stock breaks the 190 barrier, it might further come down to 160. The stock actually breached 190 on 3rd Jan and then further went below 160 on 1st Feb to make a fresh multi-year low of 147 on 11th Feb. After losing more than 25% over the past two weeks, Vedanta is now hovering around the 147 mark. In case 147 gets broken conclusively, then the stock might drop below 100. The stock has a resistance at 166 and looks in no hurry to reach there. On the negative side, in case 147 gets broken, then the stock can go down to 94. Keep buying on dips with a long-term view.

Comments