Cipla - 24th Dec

Today's Opening - 519
Today's High - 521
Today's Low - 513
Today's Closing - 519
I am writing on this stock after almost nine years.

Technical Indicators:
Marginally higher closing, with low volumes.
The 14-day Positive Directional Index has been weaker than the Negative Directional Index since 21st Sep.
Since 27th Sep, the stock has not been able to rise above the 13-day Exponential Moving Average.
The 10-day Rate Of Change has been negative since 27th Sep.
The 2-day Relative Strength Index has been below 50% since 28th Sep. The 20-day Commodity Channel Index has broadly remained negative since 28th Sep.
The 12, 26-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence has remained negative since 5th Oct.

External Factors:
In FY 18, almost 9% of Cipla's revenues were generated from the supply of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs through tenders from the low and middle-income countries. These countries depend on support from multilateral agencies to buy ARV's. But that funding is slowly drying up, as donors tighten their purse strings. For instance, the largest donor the US, had proposed $1 billion in funding cuts.
With lesser funds at disposal, countries are floating tenders for smaller volumes, as the competition is getting tougher, thereby impacting the margins. Thus, the company and therefore the stock is under pressure.

Outlook for the Stock:
After dropping almost 20% over the past three months, the stock has a strong support at 503. In case 503 gets taken, the stock might correct upto 480. On the higher side though, the stock is facing a resistance at 535. The stock has been trending flat with a negative bias over the past one and half months with low volumes. With no clear direction emerging for the stock, it may continue to remain flat with a negative bias over the next few days too. Keep buying on every dip from a long-term perspective.

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