NTPC Share Price Prediction - 26th July

Today's Opening - 151
Today's High - 154
Today's Low - 150
Today's Closing - 153
I am writing on this stock after almost 9 years.
Positive closing today with today's volumes being more than 3.5X of the last 10 days' average. The closing has been below the 5-day Exponential Moving Average since 20th April.

NTPC 5-day EMA (Red Line) Trend for 180 Days

The 2-day Relative Strength Index has been between 25 and 50 since 4th May. The 20-day Commodity Channel Index has turned negative over the past two days.
The 14-day Negative Directional Index has been stronger than the Positive Directional Index since 10th May. The 12, 26-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence too has been negative since 10th May.
NTPC is likely to takeover NHPC, as per the reported talks that the Government is having. With this, NTPC, which is already the biggest electricity generator by capacity might become even bigger.
The power sector in general has had a low growth due to weak demand, rising input cost, lack of Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), subdued merchant rates and low generation due to lack of coal availability. Within the power sector, NTPC is a better bet considering stable cash flow stream, capacity addition and low regulatory risk.
The stock has lost almost 11% over the past three months. Though it had heavy volumes today and ended positive for the day, still it touched the low of 149-150 today too, which is not an encouraging sign. 149-150 is a strong support level for the company and in case 149 gets broken, the next support is at 145. Keep buying on dips from a long term perspective.

If you find this analysis useful, you might also want to read through my latest posts on Hero MotoCorp, ONGC and BHEL.

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